A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
