Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
